Government fiction on Durban deferral and carbon tax pain is happening
Mark Dreyfus and the Gillard Government are kidding themselves if they think Durban's deferral and agreement to keep talking amount to a breakthrough outcome– as he's suggested on these pages – let alone one that represents the sort of international action upon which Labor’s carbon tax has been modelled. A carbon tax Julia Gillard told us at the last election we would never have under a Government she leads.
It shouldn't be a surprise that Mr Dreyfus and the Government hailed the Durban deferral as “an historic achievement”. They used the same word to describe the complete failure at Copenhagen two years ago, which suggests a very low threshold indeed.
Mr Dreyfus claims that “all of the world’s major emitters, including the US and China, have committed to take on legal obligations to reduce carbon pollution”. As an esteemed lawyer I would have thought Mr Dreyfus would understand that the difference between someone saying they will take on legal obligations and them actually taking on such obligations is vast. It is a gulf made even wider when none of the key terms of such an agreement have even been finalised.
It's true that limited, non-verifiable and non-binding pledges to reduce emissions continue to occur around the world. It is even true that some action to meet these pledges is happening in some countries, although none that resembles the high pricing, economy wide carbon tax Australians will face from 1 July next year. So a Government desperate to portray its carbon tax as part of a wider effort might well say global action is happening. Because, as the Productivity Commission has confirmed, they can't say anyone else has anything like Australia's carbon tax.
And yes, it's true that we do now have a possible treaty – sure, anything strictly remains possible for so long as talks are not completely abandoned. This possible treaty, though, is deferred until at least 2020. That's 11 years after the Copenhagen failure and with no guarantees of China or the United States being part of any new legal agreement.
The deal reached in Durban is essentially no more than an agreement to hold further talks, with a timeline reminiscent of the stalled and widely derided Doha round of world trade talks.
Don't take my word for it, though. Look at what others equally hopeful of outcomes, here and around the world, have been saying:
"There has been a political agreement to agree in 2015 to take action after 2020... Celebrating a decision to leave a gaping gap in legally binding emissions reduction between the end of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012 and a possible new agreement taking effect after 2020 is political spin veiling climate failure."
Christine Milne, Greens Senator and carbon tax co-architect
"Right now the global climate regime amounts to nothing more than a voluntary deal that's put off for a decade."
Kumi Naidoo, Greenpeace International
"It is a disastrous, profoundly distressing outcome - the worst I have ever seen from such a process. At a time when scientists are queuing up to warn about terrifying consequences if emissions keep rising, what we have here in Durban is a betrayal of people across the world."
Mohamed Adow, Christian Aid
"Ordinary people have once again been let down by our governments. Led by the US, developed nations have reneged on their promises, weakened the rules on climate action and strengthened those that allow their corporations to profit from the climate crisis."
Sarah-Jayne Clifton, Friends of the Earth International
The failure in Durban to finalise a new international agreement will leave Australians paying even more under the carbon tax.
That's because the Government modelled the cost of its carbon tax on the assumption that the major economies and others would have comparable carbon pricing mechanisms to Australia's by 2016. Plainly, the carbon tax is modelled on fiction.
This modelling must be redone, and this time on assumptions that reflect the real world, so that we all know the true cost impacts including on our electricity bills, groceries and other everyday items and Australian jobs. In the interim, implementation of Julia Gillard's carbon tax should be immediately suspended.
The Coalition believes we need action on climate change and shares the Government's target of a 5 per cent emissions reduction by 2020. However, we believe it should be done without billions of dollars of wasteful, costly tax and spend churn, as well as be done in a way where emissions reduce here in Australia rather than off-shoring responsibility through the purchase of billions in international carbon credits.
Ultimately, any action needs to be global to be effective, which is why I would rather have seen a meaningful outcome from Durban. This failure only compounds the problems with Julia Gillard's carbon tax, meaning it is now unquestionably modelled on fiction, guaranteeing even greater harm to our economy and Australians’ livelihoods. By just how much, we won't fully know until we see some real world modelling that reflects the real non-outcome of Durban.